Institutional-grade pitcher and player projection systems built on Bayesian modeling, real-time data pipelines, and machine learning — designed to give you a consistent edge.
Each model is purpose-built for its league — accounting for park factors, lineup construction, umpire tendencies, and real-time Vegas movement.
Per-batter strikeout probability engine with Bayesian H2H blending, platoon splits, pitch mix analysis, and full fantasy scoring.
Korean Baseball Organization strikeout projections with per-batter handedness splits, KBO park factors, and live lineup import.
Nippon Professional Baseball strikeout projections with platoon splits, NPB park factors, live lineup import, and per-batter K probability.
Most projection tools treat every at-bat the same. We don't. Every projection accounts for the specific pitcher-batter matchup on that day.
K probability is computed individually for each batter in the lineup — accounting for handedness, chase rate, zone contact, and historical H2H data.
Head-to-head matchup data is blended with population priors using PA-weighted Bayesian inference — no more small sample size noise.
Live K lines, outs lines, and prop odds from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars — pulled automatically and baked into every projection.
Park factors, umpire K tendencies, weather, wind direction, day/night splits, and rest days are all factored into the final projection.
We use xFIP and SIERA instead of ERA as the ERA base — more predictive, less noise from defense and sequencing luck.
Pitcher archetype vs lineup vulnerability analysis — automatically flags when a chase-dependent pitcher faces a lineup full of chasers.
A multi-stage pipeline that starts with pitcher arsenal data and ends with a per-start K distribution and fantasy scoring breakdown.
Each pitch type's whiff rate, chase rate, and zone contact rate is pulled from Baseball Savant and weighted by usage frequency.
Each lineup spot gets a K probability based on their chase%, zone contact%, and historical performance vs this pitcher's arsenal.
H2H data is merged with league-average priors. The more PA in the matchup, the more the actual data overrides the prior.
10,000 simulated starts produce a full K distribution — projectedK, confidence interval, over/under probability vs Vegas line.
One of the most critical — and most overlooked — factors in a pitcher K prop is understanding how a pitcher gets strikeouts, and whether tonight's lineup actually enables that approach. Our Lineup Intel system classifies every pitcher by archetype and scores the opposing lineup accordingly.
A chase-dependent pitcher who relies on batters swinging at pitches outside the zone is only dangerous against lineups that actually chase. Put him against a disciplined lineup and his K rate collapses — regardless of what the Vegas line says. Conversely, a zone dominator who generates whiffs on pitches in the zone remains effective even against patient lineups. Knowing the difference before you bet is everything.
The bottom line: Before finalizing any K prop bet, check the pitcher archetype, count how many batters in the lineup match the pitcher's vulnerability profile, and let that inform your confidence level. Our model does this automatically — and shows you the full breakdown for every starter.
