Propulation Strikeout Projection System
PROPULATION · MLB K MODEL
Welcome & Model Instructions
Follow the steps below each day to run the full model pipeline, load lineups, and generate projections for pitcher strikeouts, batter hits, and home runs.
Daily Pipeline
Follow in order each day
1
Go to Dashboard START HERE
Click Dashboard in the left sidebar under Projections. This is your home base — it shows today's slate of starters and lets you load lineups and run projections.
2
Click "Published Slate"
At the top of the Dashboard, click the Published Slate button (green, top-left). This loads only today's confirmed starting pitchers. If you want to include probable starters that haven't been officially confirmed yet, use Starters Only instead — but confirmed lineups produce better projections.
3
Click "Lineups" REQUIRED FIRST
In the Dashboard top bar, click the Lineups button. This pulls in the batting order for each team — confirmed lineups when available, or Rotowire's projected lineup as a fallback. A ✓9 badge (green) means the lineup is officially confirmed; RW means it's Rotowire's projection. Must be done before running any projections.
4
Click "Run All Projections" MAIN MODEL
Click the Run All Projections button (top-right of Dashboard). This runs the strikeout model for every pitcher on today's slate simultaneously. Results appear in Pitcher Projection Results — check there for full slate K projections, CI ranges, Vegas edge, and model conviction levels.
5
Batter Projections (Hits & TB) OPTIONAL
Go to Batter Projection Results in the sidebar and click Run Bat Projections. This generates hit, total base, and run/RBI projections for every batter in each confirmed lineup. Requires Lineups to be loaded first (Step 3). Only runs for confirmed lineups posted so far.
6
Home Run Projections (Bomb Detector) OPTIONAL
Go to Bomb Detector in the sidebar and click Run Bomb Detector. This surfaces the top home run candidates from all confirmed lineups using power metrics, park factor, and opposing pitcher profile. Requires Lineups loaded first (Step 3).
Section Reference
What each section does
Dashboard
Your daily command center. Load the slate, pull lineups, and launch projections from here. Always start here.
Pitcher Input
Deep-dive into a single pitcher. Manually tune park factor, catcher framing, opp lineup quality, and more. See per-batter K probabilities.
Lineup Builder
Add or edit the opposing lineup for any pitcher manually. Useful when lineups aren't confirmed yet or you want to test scenarios.
Game Lines
Full game run total model. Projects over/under, F5 totals, win probability, and NRFI for every matchup.
Pitcher Projection Results
Full slate K projection comparison table with Vegas edge, CI ranges, model conviction, and LightGBM / Poisson breakdowns.
Batter Projection Results
Hit, total base, H+R+RBI, walk, and K projections for every batter in confirmed lineups. Run this after loading lineups.
Bomb Detector
Home run probability rankings across today's slate. Ranks batters by HR likelihood using power metrics + park factor + opposing pitcher.
Pitcher Targets
Ranked list of today's best K-strikeout targets based on the full model score — use as a quick reference for picks.
Pitch-Mix Matchup
Analyze how a specific pitcher's arsenal matches up against a batter's weaknesses pitch by pitch.
Results Tracker
Log and review your historical projection accuracy. Track how the model has performed over time.
Backtester
Backtest the model against historical results to validate projection quality and tune thresholds.
Model Config
Upload fresh data (pitcher CSV, batter CSV), configure model weights, and manage the underlying data pipeline.
Key Notes
⚠️
Lineups First
Always load Lineups (Step 3) before running Batter Projections or Bomb Detector. Without confirmed lineups, these tools have no data to work with.
🔄
Re-run After New Lineups Post
Lineups are posted throughout the day — typically 3–4 hours before game time. Re-click Lineups in the Dashboard and re-run projections after new lineups confirm for the most accurate results.
📊
Vegas Line Integration
Enter each pitcher's PrizePicks or DraftKings strikeout line in the Pitcher Input screen. The model will show the edge vs. the Vegas number and flag value plays automatically.
⚡
Run All vs. Individual
Run All Projections (Dashboard) runs every pitcher at once using their auto-loaded lineups. For a single pitcher with custom or manually adjusted settings, use Pitcher Input and run individually.
Dashboard
TODAY'S SLATE OVERVIEW
Starters Loaded
3
In today's slate
Avg Proj K
—
Across all starters
Highest Ceiling
—
—
Risk Flags
—
Total across slate
Slate Projection Board
Pitcher Opp Lineup xIP Proj K 80% CI Umpire Adj Park Rest Flags Status
Configure pitchers in Pitcher Input, then run projections
Pitcher Input
CONFIGURE ARSENAL & GAME CONTEXT
Pitcher Identity
Vegas Lines ·
O/U Line
Over
Under
K
OUTS
HITS
BB
ER
Historical Context
mph
Pitch Arsenal
Pitcher Rate Stats
Opponent Lineup Profile
Lineup Builder
ENTER OPPOSING BATTERS & VULNERABILITY RATINGS
Opposing Lineup (Slots 1–9)
#
BATTER
K%
HAND
Lineup K Vulnerability Preview
Fill lineup to see vulnerability chart
Assign Lineup to Pitcher
Game Lines
F5 & FULL GAME RUN TOTALS · WINNER PREDICTION
⚙ Model Settings & Bullpen ERA Overrides ▼ expand
⚾ View Pitch-Mix Matchup
PITCHER VS. LINEUP STAT BREAKDOWN
Pitcher Projection Results
FULL MODEL OUTPUT WITH CI & RISK FLAGS
Run projections from the Dashboard to see results here
Batter Projection Results
LINEUP HITTING PROJECTIONS · H · TB · H+R+RBI · BB · K
🪄
PROPULATION
K MODEL
BAT PACK
3 BEST BATS
TODAY
✂
CLICK TO REVEAL
👆
SORT BY:
🪄
Run Batter Projections to see lineup hitting analysis
Requires lineups set in Lineup Builder and pitchers on the slate
Bomb Detector
HR PROBABILITY MODEL · BARREL% · EXIT VELO · LAUNCH ANGLE · PARK FACTORS
💣
PROPULATION
K MODEL
DONG PACK
3 TOP BOMBS
TODAY
✂
CLICK TO REVEAL
👆
SORT BY:
💣
Run Bomb Detector to see HR probability for each batter on the slate
Requires lineups set in Lineup Builder and pitchers on the slate
Propulation Lab
Pitcher Targets & Confidence Level
Strikeout Prop Research & Analysis
Pitcher Targets
Loading pitcher targets…
Results Tracker
Log actual K totals after each game to power the backtester
Auto-Import Today's Results
Fetches actual Ks + IP + pitches from MLB Stats API for all slate pitchers
Log Game Result
Game Log
No results logged yet — add your first game above
Backtester
WALK-FORWARD VALIDATION ON SYNTHETIC DATA
⚠ No real data — using synthetic simulation
Configuration
Model Performance
Run backtest to see metrics
Model vs Vegas
Awaiting results
Conditional Calibration Buckets
Run backtest to see calibration by K-tier, home/away, rest
Residual Distribution & Scatter
ACTUAL vs PREDICTED SCATTER
RESIDUAL HISTOGRAM
ROLLING RMSE (10-START WINDOW) — vs Vegas baseline
Game Lines Backtest & Calibration
No history yet — run a simulation on the Game Lines page, then click 💾 Save Today's GL Projections.
After games complete, enter the date and click ⬇ Fetch Actuals to pull real scores from MLB.
🔬 Pitches Thrown Lab
1ST INNING PITCH COUNT ANALYSIS
Run projections, then select a pitcher above to analyze 1st inning pitch tendencies.
Model Config
ENSEMBLE WEIGHTS & FEATURE PARAMETERS
Ensemble Weights

Adjust the blend of each sub-model. Weights are normalized to sum to 1.0.

LightGBM
15%
Poisson
8%
Logistic
17%
Vegas Line
60%
Bayesian H2H Prior
Feature Parameters
Active Features
USER MANAGEMENT
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