Propulation Strikeout Projection System
Dashboard
TODAY'S SLATE OVERVIEW
Starters Loaded
3
In today's slate
Avg Proj K
—
Across all starters
Highest Ceiling
—
—
Risk Flags
—
Total across slate
Slate Projection Board
Pitcher Opp Lineup xIP Proj K 80% CI Umpire Adj Park Rest Flags Status
Configure pitchers in Pitcher Input, then run projections
Pitcher Input
CONFIGURE ARSENAL & GAME CONTEXT
Pitcher Identity
Vegas Lines ·
O/U Line
Over
Under
K
OUTS
HITS
BB
ER
Historical Context
mph
Pitch Arsenal
Pitcher Rate Stats
Opponent Lineup Profile
Lineup Builder
ENTER OPPOSING BATTERS & VULNERABILITY RATINGS
Opposing Lineup (Slots 1–9)
#
BATTER
K%
HAND
Lineup K Vulnerability Preview
Fill lineup to see vulnerability chart
Assign Lineup to Pitcher
Game Lines
F5 & FULL GAME RUN TOTALS · WINNER PREDICTION
⚙ Model Settings & Bullpen ERA Overrides ▼ expand
⚾ View Pitch-Mix Matchup
PITCHER VS. LINEUP STAT BREAKDOWN
Pitcher Projection Results
FULL MODEL OUTPUT WITH CI & RISK FLAGS
Run projections from the Dashboard to see results here
Batter Projection Results
LINEUP HITTING PROJECTIONS · H · TB · H+R+RBI · BB · K
🪄
PROPULATION
K MODEL
BAT PACK
3 BEST BATS
TODAY
✂
CLICK TO REVEAL
👆
SORT BY:
🪄
Run Batter Projections to see lineup hitting analysis
Requires lineups set in Lineup Builder and pitchers on the slate
💣 Bomb Detector
HR PROBABILITY MODEL · BARREL% · EXIT VELO · LAUNCH ANGLE · PARK FACTORS
💣
PROPULATION
K MODEL
DONG PACK
3 TOP BOMBS
TODAY
✂
CLICK TO REVEAL
👆
SORT BY:
💣
Run Bomb Detector to see HR probability for each batter on the slate
Requires lineups set in Lineup Builder and pitchers on the slate
Results Tracker
Log actual K totals after each game to power the backtester
Auto-Import Today's Results
Fetches actual Ks + IP + pitches from MLB Stats API for all slate pitchers
Log Game Result
Game Log
No results logged yet — add your first game above
Backtester
WALK-FORWARD VALIDATION ON SYNTHETIC DATA
⚠ No real data — using synthetic simulation
Configuration
Model Performance
Run backtest to see metrics
Model vs Vegas
Awaiting results
Residual Distribution & Scatter
ACTUAL vs PREDICTED SCATTER
RESIDUAL HISTOGRAM
Game Lines Backtest & Calibration
No history yet — run a simulation on the Game Lines page, then click 💾 Save Today's GL Projections.
After games complete, enter the date and click ⬇ Fetch Actuals to pull real scores from MLB.
🔬 Pitches Thrown Lab
1ST INNING PITCH COUNT ANALYSIS
Run projections, then select a pitcher above to analyze 1st inning pitch tendencies.
Model Config
ENSEMBLE WEIGHTS & FEATURE PARAMETERS
Ensemble Weights

Adjust the blend of each sub-model. Weights are normalized to sum to 1.0.

LightGBM
15%
Poisson
8%
Logistic
17%
Vegas Line
60%
Bayesian H2H Prior
Feature Parameters
Active Features
USER MANAGEMENT
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