NPB K Model — How To Use
Nippon Professional Baseball · Pitcher Strikeout & Game Lines Projection System
Daily Pipeline
1
Load Today's Starters
Navigate to Slate Dashboard and click Starting Pitchers to populate today's slate with the announced NPB starting pitchers.
2
Load Batting Lineups
Click Bat Lineups to pull confirmed batting orders for each team. Lineups typically post 30–60 minutes before first pitch — run this step as close to game time as possible for the most accurate projections.
3
Run Pitcher Projections
Click Run Projections in the Slate Dashboard. Results appear in the Projection Results tab, ranked by projected strikeouts with per-pitcher K%, hit, and out projections.
4
Game Lines Projections
Navigate to the Game Lines tab and click Import Today to load today's matchups. Run Analytical or Simulated projections (or both) for run total estimates. Cross-reference projected totals against DraftKings NPB lines to identify edges. Export results via the Excel button for offline review.
Other Features
⚡ PITCHER LOG
Click any pitcher name in the Slate Dashboard to jump directly to their game log. Click Refresh Game Log each session to pull the latest start data.
📊 TEAM BAT STATS
Review opposing lineup K%, OBP, and discipline metrics in the Team Bat Stats section to assess matchup quality before finalizing picks.
📈 RESULTS TRACKER
Track projection accuracy in the Results Tracker. After games finish, click Auto-fill Actuals to reconcile projections with real outcomes automatically.
📤 GAME LINES EXPORT
Export the full Game Lines projection table to Excel via the export button. Always verify run total lines against DraftKings NPB for accuracy before use.
Key Notes
Lineup timing: Batting lineups are typically confirmed 30–60 minutes before first pitch. Always reload lineups as close to game time as possible — unconfirmed lineups reduce projection accuracy.
Game Lines accuracy: Cross-reference projected game totals with DraftKings NPB lines. The model uses a league average baseline — manual verification ensures totals reflect current market pricing.
Follow the order: Always complete Steps 1 → 2 → 3 in sequence. Projections run without confirmed lineups will use estimated batting orders and will be less accurate.
Slate Dashboard
TODAY'S NPB STARTERS
Starters Loaded
—
Today's slate
Avg Proj K
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Per pitcher
Top K Ceiling
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—
Risk Flags
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Across slate
Today's Starters
Select a date and click Starting Pitchers to load the slate
DFS Lines
Batting Lineups
Click Bat Lineups to load today's batting orders
Projection Results
RANKED BY PROJECTED K · CLICK CARD TO EXPAND MATCHUP
Run Projections from the Slate Dashboard first
Projection Detail
K BREAKDOWN · BATTER MATCHUP · SUBMODELS · ARSENAL
Search for a pitcher above, or click any row on the Slate Dashboard
Shows: projected K · batter K% breakdown · pitcher splits · submodel scores · pitch arsenal
Results Tracker
ACTUAL VS PROJECTED — MODEL ACCURACY
K MAE
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Mean abs error
HA MAE
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Hits allowed
Outs MAE
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Outs recorded
Sample
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Logged starts
Recent Results
| Date | Pitcher | Opp | K Proj | K Act | K Δ | H Proj | H Act | Outs Proj | Outs Act | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No results logged yet | ||||||||||
Pitcher Log
2026 SEASON GAME LOGS BY TEAM
Click Refresh Logs to load season game logs
Team Bat Stats
2026 NPB TEAM BATTING — K% · BB% · CHASE% · Z-CON% · AVG · OBP · SLG · OPS · ISO · BABIP
Loading team batting stats…
GAME LINES
FULL GAME · F5 TOTALS · NRFI · MONEYLINES · 50K MONTE CARLO
NO GAMES LOADED
Click "⚾ Import Today" to load today's NPB slate
Model Config
SUB-MODEL WEIGHTS · PROJECTION PARAMETERS
K Model Weights
Arsenal/GBM
40%
Poisson
40%
Rate/K9
20%
Projection Settings
NPB Park Factors
| Team | Stadium | K Factor | H Factor | HR Factor | Notes |
|---|