PROPULATION NFL
— loadingWEEK 1
PACK
Three overs and three unders, ranked on edge × measured calibration × book count — a 6-point edge on a well-calibrated prop outranks a 10-point edge on a shaky one.
Disagreements above 25 points are held back: outside the range the model's calibration was measured in, they have always turned out to be an input disagreement rather than value.
PAPER MODE — beats a naive benchmark, not yet the market. What that means ›
Measured to beat a naive benchmark (each player's own trailing mean) on 2021–24. It has not been shown to beat the market: gate G5 needs a settled line history, which only began accumulating 2026-09-10. Treat every edge as paper trading and watch closing-line value rather than the edge itself.
Compare Med against the line, not Proj. Yardage outcomes are right-skewed (measured mean/median 1.06–1.16), so a 50/50 line sits below the mean by design. The edge column already uses the full distribution, not either single number.
| Player | Pos | Matchup | Prop | Proj | 80% band | Med | Line | Model | Market | Edge | Side | Conf | Bks |
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WEEK 1
PACK
The six plays where the model disagrees most with a PrizePicks line, ranked on P(hit) × measured calibration.
A PrizePicks pick is a straight 50/50 proposition, so the edge is simply how far the model's probability sits from 50% — there is no vig to strip. Standard lines only: demons and goblins are shaded on purpose and are not 50/50.